Almost time for Regionals again

The next two months look to be a pretty busy time in the World of Warcraft TCG. The next wave of Regionals kicks off this weekend with two events being held in Collinsville, Ill. The week after that we will see four Regionals and the season will really get rolling on March 10. Toward the end of the season the next expansion, Through the Dark Portal will be released and April 7th will see this round of Regionals wrap up. Just a few short weeks later will see our first Darmoon Faire in Austin, TX. We've got a lot to cover, so let's get down to business. My articles the next couple of weeks over on TCGPlayer.com will cover what the metagame looks like right now compared to what it looked like back in January. So today, I want to address a question that will be answered in the next couple of weeks. Namely, what should we expect out of Alliance Mages this time around?

Leading up to the last Regionals on 1/13, everyone knew Hunter decks would probably be the most popular decks and that if you beat them, you would at least have a chance. There was a lot of discussion as to what decks would rise up and challenge their supremacy and one of the decks that everyone pointed to as a contender to the crown was Litori control. But as the numbers rolled in, Litori was nowhere to be found. She took a few spots, but the results were decidedly udnerwhelming. So what happened? Let's take a look at a couple of possible explanations and see what they mean to us as we prepare for Regionals again.

The first and most common reason given for Litori's lack of success is the sheer price of building the deck. Cards in general were in short supply and pack prices were grossly inflated before the last Regionals. The Litori control deck specifically was quite expensive to build. The Alliance Trinity of epic characters were required along with a playset of Frost Novas and Counterspells which were fetching prices near $50 back in January. Most people simply hadn't bought enough packs to come into the deck naturally and didn't want to spend $300 on singles to put the deck together. This is a very valid theory. If it is indeed one of the precipitating factors in Litori's lackluster Regionals I, what does it mean now? Well, first of all pack prices have come back down as the supply has started reaching more acceptable levels. As a secondary result of lower pack prices and more available cards, the price of many singles has also come down. On a side note, the underperformance of Alliance Mages in round 1 probably contributed somewhat to the decline in prices of their singles as well. So now, people will have access to more cards from packs and cheaper singles. If Litori underperforms again, I don't think the price of the deck can still be used as an excuse. So, if the deck is really as good as so many people claim, it should show up in greater numbers the second time around.

The second major reason people gave for the low qualifying spots of Litori players was the high degree of difficulty involved in playing the deck properly. While the deck isn't easy to play (I don't think any deck is truly easy to play in WoW as it's actually quite easy to screw up a Hunter deck if you don't play well), I don't think it's considerably more difficult to play than a Dizdemona Trinity deck. Which brings us to what I consider the real reason Alliance Mages didn't do well at Regionals. In an environment where your number one priority was to beat Hunters, Warlocks just did that better. Sarmoth, Infernal, 28 Health and Netherwind Crown I think prove to be better than Frost Nova. But now, the metagame has shifted and control dominates the top tier while Hunters struggle to hang on to the success they enjoyed at GenCon. What does this shift mean to Alliance Mages? Let's look at an environment where Shamans are Warlocks are now in the crosshairs.

In an Alliance Mage deck more focused on beating other control decks, the Shaman deck can become a good matchup. In this matchup, your superior card drawing will hopefully come into play to power you to a late game victory. One of the biggest advantages of the new metagame will show up here, and that is the lack of Inventor's Focal Swords currently being played. Focal Sword plus Polymorph essentially means you will always be able to shut down their best ally. Unless they remove the Focal Sword, there best ally will always get turned into a sheep. This has a nice added bonus of forcing Shaman players to leave in Zygore Bladebreaker against you or letting a Focal Sword go unchecked in games 2 and 3. Since Zygore is a minimal threat as an attacker this is generally good for you. If you can make it to the endgame your superior card draw and more powerful allies should propel you to victory.

The next matchup that really matters is against Alliance Warlocks. This is a spot where the new metagame will really benefit you. A lot of Alliance Warlock decks have dropped their Focal Swords because the card just isn't very good in the most important matchups. A Focal Sword that survives into the late game will ultimately seal their fate allowing you to turn their big allies into sheep. These two decks both have a lot of card drawing power, but I think the Mage has an advantage in the ability department. The Warlock makes up for this with Infernal. I think the Alliance Warlocks are designed with beating Hunters in mind, but the Alliance Mage is better suited for the long control on control matches. I haven't tested this matchup a lot, but it will be one of our primary focuses in testing this time around.

The third important matchup is Hunters. I think the importance of this matchup is lower this time around than the first, but don't underestimate the Hunters. They will adapt and come back. This is usually a good matchup for Hunters, but your one weakness is your low health total combined with no healing. Saving Counterspells is very important to keep Aimed Shots at bay. The general goal here will be to take as little damage as possible early trying to turn the game into a war of attrition between their allies and your removal. If you can fight off the initial onslaught your superior card drawing will start to kick in and your win will be inevitable.

This time around, there won't be any excuses for Litori. Either she shows up and produces numbers worthy of the power of this deck or she is relegated to a middle tier hero until the next set comes out. I think the metagame is lining up favorably for Alliance Mages and wouldn't be at all surprised to see a lot more Litori players punching their ticket to Nationals this time around.