Regionals Primer-Matchup Analysis Hunter

Today I'm going to start talking about the matchups of the main decks that project to make up the bulk of the metagame. I'm going to start with what figures to be the most popular deck at Regionals....hunter rush.

The good news: The good news is that even your worst matchups aren't usually terrible. With this deck, who goes first is really important, and I would say that when you win the die roll even your worst matchups are probably only about 40/60. Some of your matchups (the shaman in particular) are much harder when you're on the draw. The raw power of this deck will allow it to win some games it had no business winning and this is the deck least likely to lose to unexpected decks. I was going to say rogue decks but that is misleading since rogue can actually be a decktype in this game. The deck is probably the easiest to play and easiest to learn quickly. It's not as easy to play as beatdown decks in other games because you choose the order of attacks and whether to attack allies or the hero, but it's not as complicated as some of the control decks. The hardest decisions you will face are how to handle protectors on your opponent's side. Some of your bad matchups are only bad matchups in the hands of players who really know how to play the deck. It's very easy to mess up against the rush deck, and when it happens the rush deck is capable of capitalizing on the smallest of play mistakes.

The bad news: There is going to be a lot of hate out there for this deck. Everyone has seen its success at GenCon and everyone knows it will be the most popular deck at Regionals. The best players in most areas will be playing decks that have good matchups vs. rush decks. You will play a lot of mirror matches where the die roll may be the most important factor. You are going to have to win between 6-8 matches to take the Nationals slot and that will require winning a lot of mirrors and bad but close matchups.

Now on to matchup specific analysis.

Shaman: This is probably your worst matchup. If they go first it's really bad. If you go first it's closer. This decks packs a lot of cards you don't want to see. Turn 2 Searing Totem when they go first is one of the worst. They have a lot of cards with built in card advantage vs. you. Searing Totem, Taz'Dingo, Ophelia Barrows, Kulan Earthguard, Chain Lightning. All these cards are generally 2-for-1's for the Shaman player. Draconian Deflector and Ghost Wolf will add to your pain. If you're going to play this deck, you're simply going to have to accept that the shaman deck is a bad, bad matchup. Your best chance of winning is simply to run out as many allies as fast as you can. If you have the option of playing a 2-drop or 2 1-drops play the 2 characters. It will make you more vulnerable to their card advantage, but you can't wait around trying to make yourself less vulnerable to Taz and Searing Totem early or the Chain Lightning, Kulans, and Manslayers will make winning virtually impossible later. When you run out of allies get your Krol Blade online and then start completing quests looking for more allies. Your only hope is to run out more guys than they can kill all at once and drop them within range of Aimed Shot. Try to set up your attacks so that Fury can land a big one. Try not to put extra Krol Blades in your resource row because they have Zygore Bladebreaker. Having a Krol Blade is important in the endgame to use up their Deflector to open the door for your Aimed Shots. One practice that I have adopted when going second is mulliganing any hand that doesn't have a Aimed Shot or Arcane Shot since a turn 2 Searing Totem that you can't shoot will pretty much end the game before it even starts. This is probably your worst matchup, but against weaker players and when you go first you will have a decent chance.

Alliance Warlock-This matchup is a little better than the shaman. They lose the powerful equipment the shaman has but get to replace it with troublesome pets. The first is Grimdron. He's not as bad for you as a Searing Totem since he can only get used once for every 2 times the Totem activates. He also doesn't deal damage on his first turn in play and requires a resource to activate. He is elusive, however, so unless you can shoot him, he can quickly turn into a real nuisance. If you can't shoot him, don't be afraid to just unleash your hand. A common mistake among Warlock players is leaning too heavily on Grimdron and stunting their own board development in the process. They will use him every turn and will be virtually one resource behind you as long as Grimdron remains in play. So don't be afraid to make them use Grimdron if he is in play as it may actually be a blessing in disguise. The next pet on the list is Sarmoth and he's a really annoying one. He will usually soak up two allies, taking one down with him a lot of the time. There's not a lot you can do here. If you are lucky enough to have gone first and have 2 2 health allies at least he doesn't kill anyone. If they went first, you'll simply have to let him eat your one drop and kill him with a 2. The last pet is Infernal. When he comes out, you better be close to winning. He will keep your board pretty clear by himself and he can end the game in a hurry. The late game is where this matchup becomes more favorable for you than the shaman. Your Krol Blades will almost always find their mark with no Deflectors to stop them. The lack of Deflector allows you to keep hammering on them with your weapon and makes them more vulnerable to your Aimed Shots as the game winds down. This is another matchup where you want to deal as much damage as possible early and then squeeze through whatever you can and hope to finish them with an Aimed Shot.

Alliance Mage Control- This is another control deck that is a seemingly bad matchup. I think this matchup is better for the hunter than the shaman but not as good as the warlock. Here, you only need to deal 25 damage instead of 28 or 29. No heavy equipment again makes this deck more vulnerable to your Krol Blades. Krol Blade may be the most important card in the non-shaman control matchups. This deck trades in the warlock's pets for devastating abilities like Frost Nova. The mage will usually seek to make one for one trades early with cards like Fire Blast and Polymorph. Then in the mid-game they will start unleashing the Frost Nova's which are really bad. One thing that most people do, but some out there may not know is always do your attacking before you play more allies. This is especially true in this matchup. If you can force out a Frost Nova and then play Fury afterwards you can take out 20% of their health right there. One piece of advice here. Most people save their Aimed Shots for the last possible moment saving them up to make them as painful as possible. The presence of Counterspell in the mage's arsenal means you should look for any opening to get an Aimed Shot in. Any time you can get in at least 4, I think you should throw an Aimed Shot at them. They can't use their Counterspells on your allies or weapons so getting those Shots in while you can is really important. If you can get your opponent within range of one Aimed Shot they will then have to leave 2 open at all times or risk losing the game to tap out and play their big late game allies. Once again, I would try not to put my excess Krol Blades in the row since they are so good in this matchup.

Horde Warrior- This one is a pretty decent matchup for you. Once again going first is a huge help. This deck is really a lot better and beating the decks that beat rush. The Warrior does have a small arsenal of cards for dealing with this matchup but overall, it's a decent matchup for the hunter. This one's all about coming out hard and fast. The only card you that can generate any card advantage for them early is Guardian Steelhorn if you let him kill a one drop and then get a 2 drop as well. Other than that, Cleave is the only thing that can give them better than a 1-for-1. They will be forced to use their Mortal Strikes to take out your allies. The biggest problem for you here is their heavy armor and high health. Dealing 30 can be tough, but with their armor you may have to deal more like 45 or 50. The good news is they will have a tough time keeping up as you will probably be able to play allies faster than they can remove them. As long as you keep a steady stream of allies running at them, they won't ever get a chance to start trying to win. Overall, I think the more Warrior decks there are in the field the better it is for rush decks. This is a pretty good matchup for you and warriors have good matchups vs. your bad ones, so as the day goes along they should be knocking out the decks you don't want to play against.

Paladin- This matchup is a little harder to dissect than some of the others. For one thing, their isn't an established build of this deck to reference. There's also so much in the deck that can be changed that this matchup is heavily dependent on the exact build of the Paladin deck and the player playing the Paladin deck. This matchup isn't necessarily a tough one for the deck, but it is a tough one for the player to play optimally. Paladins and Warriors are similar in that they both have high health, heavy armor, and plan on winning without allies. The Paladin presents a tougher challenge for rush decks because of the ways it is different than the Warrior. First it tends to run a more complete armor suite. Whereas the Warrior basically runs Golem Skull Helm and Draconian Deflector (Deathdealer Breastplate is in there for its offensive prowess and will rarely see play until late in the game in the hunter matchup) Paladins will generally run Herod's Shoulder, Stronghold Gauntlets, and Girdle of Uther as well. Some will also run Truesilver Breastplate. So more of your damage gets soaked up. Paladins tend to run the Herod's Shoulder toolbox which presents a major problem....Flame Wrath. When this card comes online the next two turns are crucial. You have to bring them right to the brink. Otherwise, Flame Wrath is going to mop up. The third difference is the Paladin's ability to heal. Once the Warrior stabilizes the board he is still in danger of your Fury's, Leeroy's and Aimed Shots, but once the Paladin stabilizes, he will then start undoing all the damage you've done. If the Paladin runs Divine Shield and Blessing of Protection this matchup is really tough as you may not deal any damage before they are able to strike with their Flame Wrath. I don't think this matchup is as bad for you as the shaman, but you would rather be playing against a Warrior.

Overall, I think the shaman is a bad matchup but closer than people think. The Paladin will tend to be a bad matchup. The Warlock and Mage control decks are close, and I think the Warrior deck is your best matchup among established archetypes. The more Warriors in the field the better the chances for rush decks since it's a good matchup plus the warriors can knock out some of your bad matchups. The hunter rush is best equipped to handle anything not within these types since it plays the same way pretty much every game. If you choose to play this deck, be prepared for a lot of hate and know your deck very well.