Metagame Madness
First, I want to say thanks to anyone who helped get results in to me. There were 7 Regionals this past weekend which means 28 top 4 decks, and we got 26 of them. Unfortunately, I didn't get any results from Europe so I won't be able to include those here.
Ok, now let's get right into the good stuff, results. First, the numbers from this week.
Sen'Zir-5
Grennan-5
Gorebelly-4
Elendril-4
Dizdemona-3
Radak-1
Thangal-1
Ta'Zo-1
Litori-1
Omedus-1
Graccus and Varanis were the only heroes who are on the board who didn't get a spot this week. Kayleitha, Timmo, Moonshadow, Nimaasus, Warrax, and Boris have yet to take a top 4.
Looking just at the numbers for this week, the new top three of Sen'Zir, Elendril, an Grennan continued to post strong numbers with Sen'Zir and Grennan tying for the most spots and Elendril right behind them.
Gorebelly had a big week as well. I think a lot of people are starting to realize it's pretty good against Grennan and are coming up with better ways to stop the deck's nemesis Elendril. I said a couple weeks ago in a TCGPlayer article I thought this deck was a good choice given the environment and I expect Gorebelly to continue posting solid numbers. Right now, he's right at the top of Tier 2, but pushing to move up into that top tier.
Dizdemona bounced back after getting blanked last week taking 3 spots this week. There was troubling news for Dizdemona in Greensboro though. At a 57 player tournament, 10 players used the Alliance Warlock. That's a little more than 1 in 6. Not only did Dizzy fail to qualify any of those players for Nationals, none of them even made the top 8. I think the presence of the tempo-hungry Horde decks with Karkas Deathhowls running rampant has really turned the metagame against Dizdemona. Right now, I would say Dizdemona will continue to hover near the top of Tier 2, but her 15 minutes might be up.
After that, we saw several one-shot qualifiers. Litori Frostburn finally gets on the board but the metagame just isn't right for her to rise up to the top. Ta'Zo got on the board this week. That's the one deck that is surprising to me. I've tested a tempo-based Ta'Zo deck with good results, but the Fire Mage isn't doing a whole lot either.
I want to talk for just a minute about the resiliency and the sheer power of Elendril. Everyone knows how the hunter dominated GenCon last year. Then when everyone knew Elendril was the deck to beat in January it still posted better numbers than all but 2 decks, and it wasn't far behind those. In the layoff from January to now, many people said Elendril was dead. A result of just too much hate. But there he still is, right out at the front of the race. It should come as no surprise that Elendril happens to be the MMO character of Brian Kibler, who happens to be the lead designer of the World of Warcraft TCG :)
So why has Elendril been able to persevere? The raw power of the deck has a lot to do with that. It has a great early game with efficient undercosted allies that are also hard to remove. Then in the late game it gets a big creature with Ferocity and the game's only X-Spell. Its worst matchup (Shaman) isn't as bad as most people seem to think, especially on the play. It also has beatdown's biggest built-in advantage. The ability to punish a slow start before the opponent can recover from it. All these things will keep Elendril near the top at least until the release of Through the Dark Portal.
Now let's take a quick look at the total numbers for the past three weeks.
Sen'Zir-9
Grennan-8
Elendril-8
Gorebelly-4
Dizdemona-3
Omedus-2
Varanis-1
Radak-1
Graccus-1
Thangal-1
Ta'Zo-1
Litori-1
It looks like we have a clean break here. Sen'Zir, Grennan, and Elendril have established themselves as the new Tier 1. Gorebelly and Dizdemona seem to be the Tier 2. I feel this deserves a distinction though. Gorebelly is Tier 2 and on the rise. Dizdemona is Tier 2 and falling. Omedus got a second invite which separates him from the rest of the heroes by one so he's a little further up the list, but I'm still going to call everything but the top 5 Tier 3 for now.
Regionals will really kick into high gear this weekend with 11 Regionals across North America. The Tier lines should become even clearer this weekend.
posted by B Lyons @ 8:47 AM
4 Comments
4 Comments:
three results from Europe.
Eindhoven, Netherlands (february):
1. grennan
2. grennan
3. omedus
4. omedus
Halle, Germany (march):
1.elendril
2.sen'zir
3. grennan
4. grennan
Munster, Germany (march):
1. sen'zir
2. sen'zir
3. sen'zir
4. sen'zir
In the Netherlands Omedus is quite big. the decklists that win tournaments here (and almost won the regionals) are different than the decklists seen in the North-american regionals. the focus is on allies, and especially protectors. boostcards like shadowform and chromatic cloak are not used. the cheap discard effects are maximized. it also includes Mokos. and a few resurections.
the grennan decks are comparible what we see in North America.
In germany, not only in the above tournaments, we see (total) dominance of the sen'zir decks. this has a stronger match-up vs shaman than elendril and germany is known for its good shaman decks..
the qualifying senzir decks generally include Arcanite reapers, mokos, furies, gellrins, veshrals, karkhas deathhowlers, a couple of old bones. the idea is a good curve and more playable cards in the mide and late game than the typical elendril weeny rush. e.g. it typically has 10 or less 1-drops.
4 guardian steelhorns mostly in the side board are the nightmare for the mirrormatch.
generally only a few abilities are played. some play master of the hunt or bestial wrath, and often ofcourse arcane shot. for the one drops we see besides Voss and Bloodclaw, the appearance of a few Kagras (main or side) especially for the mirror match and for totems.
I think also Brian you have to take into account the Top 8 one-round cut.
Decks that may not make top 4 via swiss are starting to rise up because they were able to win that round. It's becoming more of a "get top 8 and win a game" environment.
I know that's the mindset in a few other games with smaller-level events such as Regionals.
I've had no trouble making Top 8 in both Regionals events, and both of my decks weren't finely tuned.
I think all of us predicted the Sen'zir rise, but I'm not surprised to see Elendril still up there. The shear power of the deck I know has lost me a few games, especially against the Warlock decks. If you keep putting pressure on, they're not going to be able to keep up unless they get a nut draw.
I saw Gorebelly coming, and I would go so far to put him into T1.5. I say this because in my opinion, it's the most consistant deck when tuned correctly. It's one of the only decks that do not rely on what is happening on the other side of the board, and that gives it a lot of power.
Unlike with some decks, on a nut draw you automatically win. Consistantly, odds say you're guarenteed to pull at least one combo per game. The rest of the deck is filler to get to that point or deal the remaining damage.
Anyway... very nice article as usual. If I may suggest... post this same thing on TCGPlayer (I know they're a bit backed up due to the feature contest articles, mine hasn't been posted yet. Then again, I got it in on the 9th. >.<). Try to include a few decklists.
Even the Grennan decks have been adapting. The Grennan Rush has been doing fairly well. In my opinion, the two worst matches for that deck are Mage and Grennan Control, where Zy'lah is difficult to deal with, and the Mage has many removal spells. Thanks to Voss, Kulan and Steelhorn become irrelevant, and the Grennan player is forced to:
Frost Shock on 2, Guardian Steelhorn on 2 for nothing vs. Voss, or place a totem and usually trade with an opposing totem. Mages are forced to play smart, but in the end not having Sarmoth hurts.
Anyway... I'll post the results from KS when I get home on Sunday and make sure to get the build of their decks.
Thanks for the read,
-Ted
First of all thanks for the European results. That will help me cover the non-U.S. events.
As for my TCGPlayer column, that's all original and exclusive content, so you won't be seeing the same things here and on TCGPlayer. However, I do plan on doing a more thorough metagame breakdown in my article there in the next two weeks.
As far as breaking down the metagame, would a top 8 breakdown followed by which decks then went on to get the slots paint a better picture? I did notice there were some decks that went undefeated in Swiss but lost the "qualifying match." If that would be better I can probably do that.
Thanks for reading and let me know if there's anything I can do better.
I meant to do a more extensive one @ TCGplayer. Like with my article, I'm doing a full extensive view of all the heroes and quests before the release of TDP. I think it'd be great to see your perspective on the metagame as a whole before the release of TDP, and the impact you think it may bring to the meta.
Anyway...
Yes, I think reviewing Top 4 and Top 8 results would give people a clear understanding. I know that several times I've gone X-0 to lose in the Quarterfinals by a lucky draw.
If you viewed the top 8 decks, I believe Dizzy would show up in greater numbers, along with some of the off-key rogue decks. It'll paint a picture that shows a more diverse metagame with the introduction of the Horde Hunter (whereas before, it was Elendril Rush, Dizzy Control, and Grennan Control). I think the Introduction of the Horde Hunter helped out a lot of decks such as Omedus and Ta'zo/Varanis and brought in the introduction of the viable Thangal decks, showing people that the mid-range Horde decks stood a chance in the current environment.
In the end, I know we'll see the same 3-5 decks dominating (as shown above in the Euro reports), but it will also set up players for the upcoming expansion, where the metagame will finally be expanded (and hopefully changed for the better).
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