Setting the Record Straight-Grennan vs. Dizzy

Lately it seems like there is a myth circulating around the web that Dizdemona control has an amazing matchup vs. Grennan decks. That is simply not the case, and I don't want anyone here assuming it is. I'm not saying that Grennan has a great matchup either, it's actually a pretty close one. There are a lot of factors that determine who wins when these two decks play, and I'll try to shed a little light on this matchup.

First, I'm going to state a fact that when any amount of logic is applied plainly shows that Dizzy control simply cannot have the good matchup vs. Grennan that everyone claims. As anyone who has read my blog knows, I did a good amount of research into what decks did well at Regionals in January. I managed to compile 148 qualifying decks from 37 different Regionals. Just looking at the top three showed this:

Grennan-40
Dizdemona-31
Elendril-30

There is simply no way the Dizdemona could have such good matchups vs. Grennan and Elendril when the 2 of them together account for almost half of the invitations. According to most accounts Dizdemona was one of the top 3 represented in terms of total number of players, so if that many people played the deck and the matchups are as good as some people would have you believe, Dizdemona should have taken a lot more spots. Don't take this to mean I think Dizzy control is a bad deck, far from it. I just don't think it's as good as some people are saying it is.

So what are the key factors in this matchup? I think the most important is playskill. Neither deck is easy to play and the Shaman is particularly difficult given the multitude of options it presents. If one player has a better understanding of the matchup it will probably be the deciding factor in the match.

One of the main problems with trying to put a specific number such as 70-30 on this matchup is the huge amount of variance in Shaman deck builds. Simply changing one slot in the Shaman deck can have huge implications in this matchup. For example, expect the relatively dead in the matchup Ghost Wolf to be gone from main decks in favor of more cards to help against the control decks.

I think the biggest reason not to assume this matchup is heavily in favor of Dizzy is the Shaman's ability to adapt. Last time, Shaman decks were focused on beating Hunters. This time with a more diverse metagame with more control decks, Shaman decks will evolve somewhat to combat these new decks. It's ironic that I always hear that the Druids biggest strength is their flexibility, but it seems like in the game Shamans are much better at that than Druids.

My advice is to test the matchup for yourself before taking someone else's word at who it favors, this includes taking my word for it, but if you're going to take anyone's word it should be mine :) This will also allow you to not only know who is favored in the matchup, but more importantly why they are favored. This also may give you a chance to strengthen a weakness to change the nature of the matchup. Gathering your own knowledge of the matchups is a valuable piece in the metagame puzzle.