Metagame Madnesss 8/13

Today marks the much anticipated return of Metagame Madness. I hope for my sake that this big comeback works out better than Britney's at the VMA's this week.

The theme of this week's breakdown is balance. For this weekend at least, the game is far more balanced than it has ever been. There isn't one deck or one class that has separated itself from the rest. Gorebelly solo is getting a lot of press, and rightfully so, based on following up a U.S. Nats win with a German Nats win. We'll see how that affects things over the coming weeks, but for now it would appear you can play pretty much whatever you want. Let's start with this week's faction breakdown just to drive that balance point home.

Horde-24
Alliance-24

See what I mean. For the first time ever since I've been doing these there is a tie between the faction for one week. There's not a whole lot to gather from this information, so let's move on to the individual hero breakdown.

Gorebelly-5
Daspien Bladedancer-5
Kana Nassis-4
Omedus-4
Nathadan-3
Rotun Daggerhand-3
Nimaasus-3
Phadalus-3
Telrander-2
Bulkas-2
Ona-2
Grumpherys-2
Mazar-2
Sen'Zir-1
Victoria Jaton-1
Zenith Shadowforce-1
Fillet Kneecapper-1
Morova of the Sands-1
Anchorite Kalinna-1
Timmo Shadestep-1
Thangal-1

As you can see, things are very close at the top. Gorebelly and Daspien each took home 5 top 8's this week to put them at the top, but there were 21 different heroes represented (in just 48 total slots) and thirteen heroes that took at least 2 top 8's. Looking through the list, there is Alliance rush (Phadalus, Nimassus, Hoot n Shoot) Alliance control (Mazar), Horde rush (Omedus), Horde mid-range aggro (Ona), Horde control (Nathadan), solo rush-ish in both Horde and Alliance (Rotun, Daspien) and solo control (Gorebelly, Kana Nassis). Almost every conceivable archetype is represented.

What does it all mean? Well for one thing, you probably shouldn't be making too many decisions based on the metagame. You probably need to have a plan for the solo decks because they're getting talked about the most, but there's no need to dedicate yourself to beating them yet. My advice for now would be to play a deck you're comfortable with that you think will have decent matchups across the board because there's really no way to predict what you will face over the course of 6 rounds.

Keep a close eye on how things develop over the next couple of weeks. One of two things will happen. Either the metagame will start to sort itself out and we'll see a little bit more structure among the top decks, or diversity will continue to rule the day. If the metagame starts sorting itself out, then you will be able to start making decisions based on what you expect to face, but until then the old cliche seems to be appropriate. Expect the unexpected.

Finally, let's take a look at the numbers by class which may be somewhat surprising.

Warrior-9
Hunter-9
Rogue-9
Paladin-6
Priest-5
Druid-4
Warlock-3
Shaman-3
Mage-0

The first thing that jumped out to me other than the continued balance among the classes, was the fact that every class was represented at least three time except Mage, which is apparently Latin for doormat as that class failed to put a single hero into a top 8. I was expecting to at least see an Ozzati rush deck or two based on the power or Dragon's Breath. The other somewhat shocking development is Shaman and Warlock, highly accustomed to sitting at number 1 and 2 respectively, are now tied for 7th among classes ahead of only the lowly doormats, uh, I mean Mages. It will be interesting to see if this is just because people are tired of playing those classes and want to play something different, or if they really have fallen that far down the heap.

At the top, you've got Warriors, Hunters, and Rogues with probably enough separation to call them the Tier 1 classes. The Rogues all seem to play pretty much the same game just from different factions. The Warriors are mostly Gorebelly, although there were a couple of Cruelty decks mixed in there, and the Victoria Jaton deck was actually Alliance rush with the combo finisher. The Hunters are represented by three vastly different styles. There's the Hoot n Shoot Alliance rush decks, the Sen'Zir/Ona Horde mid-range aggro decks, and then there are the Survival solo decks. Preparing for Rogues as a class will all be roughly the same. The same is true of Warriors, but preparing for Hunters is almost like preparing for three different classes.

The second tier of classes is led by the Paladins which have two very different decks represented. There's Alliance rush with Nimaasus, which may prove more popular than Phadalus given Hammer of Justice's brutality vs. solo decks. Then there's the Horde control deck, popularized by John Tatta and TAWC at U.S. Nationals. The hero is now Nathadan, presumably for Holy Shield and possibly Avenger's Shield.

Next up is Priest. These decks are all rush decks, centered around the new Priest powerhouse Shadowfiend. Most of these decks are Omedus for now because of his more devastating flip ability and ferocious allies. One person did choose the blue men and Anchorite Kalinna, presumably for Rescue the Survivors, Defias Brotherhood, and now Corki's Ransom.

Next is Druid which is mostly Feral Druids, but there was one Boomkin Druid based on winning through Moonfire spam. Then there are the former powerhouses Warlock and Shaman. The Warlock decks are mostly Alliance control and the Shaman decks are all Phadalus.

Stay tuned in the coming weeks as we see how the metagame shakes out. With the possibility of March of the Legion not being legal for Worlds, following the trends over the next few months will help give you a headstart leading up to Wordls.