Metagame Madness Revisited

One of my very astute readers out there left a comment regarding this week's metagame madness that I would like to clarify. Anonymous left this comment:

"I don't know what you have against Gorebelly, but you've really had to stretch the boundaries of logic and reason not to include it as tier 1. First, instead of your usual classifying tiers by Hero/Class (which in this case Gorebelly/Warrior would fall into Tier 1), you've made a random and unique exception to classify by archetype.Then, instead of putting solo warrior and solo rogue together into the same archetype as "solo equip" and naming it the obvious tier 1 dominant deck, you've somehow decided that the three tier 1 archetypes are "Daspien, Omedus, and hoot'n'shoot" (mixing up Heroes and Archetypes as convenient for your theory). This makes no sense. Either the "Gorebelly" hero is tier 1 just like you say the Daspien and Omedus heroes are tier 1, or you should stay consistent classifying by archetype and not hero. In that case both Daspien and Gorebelly are bundled into "solo equip" and it is the dominant tier 1 deck."

This is actually very good point, and I felt like the clarification needed its own post rather that simply another comment because I know not everyone reads the comments section. I welcome anyone who has any valid questions or comments regarding any of my writing to call me out if you think I've made a mistake. If you do it in a civil manner like Anonymous has done here, I will try to address where you think I've messed up. Sometimes, I do mess up and I'll be the first to admit it when I do. Anyway, back to the point at hand.

First of all, I have nothing against Gorebelly. In fact, if you read my blog on my.tcgplayer, you would know that last week I said we thought Gorebelly solo was in fact the best deck.

There are two main reasons why I've broken from my usual classifications. The first is that there is just more information out there now. When I started this back in January, there weren't very many heroes that say play so when sending me information or posting on forums, etc., most people simply put Grennan, Dizdemona, Sen'Zir, Elendril, etc. More and more people are now posting the decklists online and at least differentiating between say Gorebelly Twig aggro and Gorebelly Solo/Control. This added information allows me to make a more informed assessment of what decks are popular.

The second reason I have now added the extra breakdown is because we've never had multiple VERY different archetypes played to equal success by the same hero, and we've also never had two heroes who played almost the exact same deck. In HoA the Grennan decks had varying degrees of beatdown vs. aggro, but most of them weren't vastly different from one another. With Gorebelly now we see 2 incredibly different archetypes, both with a fair amount of success.

As for combining the two heroes that make up Hoot'n'Shoot, that's also a byproduct of never having two heroes with the same Faction and Class playing similar styles of decks. I still list all the heroes individually, but in the end the real goal of this article is to show everyone what they can expect from the metagame. Hoot'n'Shoot despite being played by 2 different heroes, is currently more popular than either Gorebelly deck individually. That is the point I made and I think it would be misleading (and possibly ethically wrong) if I didn't bring this distinction up in addressing the metagame.

As to why I didn't lump Solo Warrior and Solo Rogue together to make solo equipment and dub it the hands down best deck, there are actually several reasons. The first is that this column has nothing to do with the best deck but instead, the popularity of all decks. Also, despite having the obvious similarities (no or few allies, mostly equipment, hates Hammer of Justice, etc.) the two decks play very differently and require different gameplans to beat them. This may seem crazy, but the Rogues decks are actually closer to Telrander than Gorebelly. The final reason I didn't lump Solo Rogue and Solo Warrior together is because there just aren't as many Solo Warrior decks as you seem to think.

In the end, I still gave you the normal hero breakdown that I always have. As far as I know, UDE still hasn't named me Official Assigner of Tiers yet, so if you think "solo equip" is the obvious most dominant deck, you're certainly entitled to that opinion. I simply showed where the numbers could be deceiving and showed you how I would currently put the decks into Tiers 1 and 2.

Metagame Madness 9/20

In our second week of Regionals the metagame starts to show its true colors. This week, we will see a little clearer definition between the decks that should be considered Tier 1 and Tier 2, and sadly, Mages get shut out again.

The first breakdown as usual, will be the ratio of Horde to Alliance. Last week we saw a tie between the factions, but this week was a different story.

Horde-50/+26
Alliance-35/+11

Horde dominated Alliance this week. The question is why. The easy answer is the top three represented heroes are all Horde. Gorebelly continues at a strong pace. Daspien seems to have won the battle of who's the best solo Rogue, and Shadowfiend-powered Omedus decks are killing people faster than any deck ever has. Expect the trend toward Horde to continue.

Next, let's take a look at the class breakdown.

Warrior-16/+7
Rogue-16/+7
Hunter-14/+5
Priest-11/+6
Shaman-8/+5
Paladin-8/+2
Warlock-6/+3
Druid-6/+2
Mage-Still 0 :(

The Warrior and Rogue decks continue to battle it out for top class. Priests as a class are essentially just Omedus decks. Hunters continute to be solid choices and Shamans had a good bounceback week on the back of Grennan mid-range decks. Mage is still getting shut out.

Finally we'll move on to what is really the most important part, hero breakdown.

Daspien-12/+7
Gorebelly-11/+6
Omedus-9/+5
Kana Nassis-6/+2
Grumpherys-5/+3
Nathadan-4/+1
Phadalus-4/+1
Telrander-4/+2
Mazar-4/+2
Grennan-4/+4
Rotun-3/+0
Nimaasus-3/+0
Bulkas-3/+1
Ona-2/+0
11 heroes tied at 1.

In a strange turn of events, there are three clear-cut Tier 1 decks, but they're not what you think. How? you ask. The numbers are right there, Daspien, Gorebelly, and Omedus are the top three decks. The numbers don't lie, I've said that since I started this segment. In this instance, the numbers don't like, but they don't tell the whole truth either.

While it's true there are three clear-cut Tier 1 decks, Gorebelly is surprisingly not one of them. I know he has the second most top 8's, but the problem here is that his 11 top 8's are misleading. Those 11 are split almost evenly between Twig rush decks and solo combo/control decks with Twig rush actually being slightly more popular. So while Gorebelly is quite popular, it is two separate decks that are posting those numbers.

Ok, so Gorebelly is more like the top of Tier 2 than a Tier 1 deck. Then what the heck is the third clear-cut Tier 1 deck? I'm glad you asked. In the exact opposite of the Gorebelly syndrome where one hero is actually represented by two decks, we have the case of Hoot'n'Shoot, a single deck represented by 2 heroes. Some players have elected to stay true to this decks roots and continue to run Grumpherys as the hero, presumably for his flip and Bestial Wrath. Some players on the other hand have turned to Kana Nassis for Rescue the Survivors and Ka'lai. Whichever hero you choose, the deck remains essentially the same.

So our Tier 1 is currently comprised of Daspien, Omedus, and Hoot'n'Shoot. The top of Tier 2 is the Gorebelly decks and a host of others. Which ones do are worth noting? First, let's just quickly establish which decks are Tier 2 in addition to the two Gorebelly decks. We've got Nathadan, Phadalus, Telrander, Mazar, Grennan, Rotun, Nimaasus, and Bulkas. So which of these seem likely to continue to do well?

The first deck to take notice of is Grennan, which posted all 4 of its top 8's this week. The Shaman has always been solid and with a better grasp of what to prepare for, Grennan should continue to post solid numbers.

Telrander is another deck to note. It's still one of the fastest in the game, and with Shamans (and their Purges) becoming less popular, that could help open the door for Feral Druids. Of course of the three Tier 1 decks, Omedus can play Dispel Magic which is functionally better than Purge, and Hoot'n'Shoot runs Chipper. So there's still plenty of ability hate at the top tables.

Mazar is one other deck I would like to highlight. The Warlock class has always been very good against rush with the tempo stealer Sarmoth. Shadowfury has just made rush matchups even easier. Warlocks biggest problem has always been Mortal Strike. With Escape Artist technology becoming more widespread, don't be surprised to see Warlock control make the climb towards the top.

As for Tier 2 decks on the way down, Rotun and Nimaasus both got blanked this week. Most Rogue players have chosen Daspien as their hero in the solo Rogue deck with his amazing flip ability. It's hard to say what happened to Nimaasus this week. His popularity seems to be fleeting. Before FoO came out there would be weeks where Nimaasus was one of the most represented heroes and then weeks where he would disappear. We'll see what continues to happen with him.

That's all for this week. Anyone who attends Regionals this weekend, please send me your top 8's. Thanks and good luck.

Metagame Madnesss 8/13

Today marks the much anticipated return of Metagame Madness. I hope for my sake that this big comeback works out better than Britney's at the VMA's this week.

The theme of this week's breakdown is balance. For this weekend at least, the game is far more balanced than it has ever been. There isn't one deck or one class that has separated itself from the rest. Gorebelly solo is getting a lot of press, and rightfully so, based on following up a U.S. Nats win with a German Nats win. We'll see how that affects things over the coming weeks, but for now it would appear you can play pretty much whatever you want. Let's start with this week's faction breakdown just to drive that balance point home.

Horde-24
Alliance-24

See what I mean. For the first time ever since I've been doing these there is a tie between the faction for one week. There's not a whole lot to gather from this information, so let's move on to the individual hero breakdown.

Gorebelly-5
Daspien Bladedancer-5
Kana Nassis-4
Omedus-4
Nathadan-3
Rotun Daggerhand-3
Nimaasus-3
Phadalus-3
Telrander-2
Bulkas-2
Ona-2
Grumpherys-2
Mazar-2
Sen'Zir-1
Victoria Jaton-1
Zenith Shadowforce-1
Fillet Kneecapper-1
Morova of the Sands-1
Anchorite Kalinna-1
Timmo Shadestep-1
Thangal-1

As you can see, things are very close at the top. Gorebelly and Daspien each took home 5 top 8's this week to put them at the top, but there were 21 different heroes represented (in just 48 total slots) and thirteen heroes that took at least 2 top 8's. Looking through the list, there is Alliance rush (Phadalus, Nimassus, Hoot n Shoot) Alliance control (Mazar), Horde rush (Omedus), Horde mid-range aggro (Ona), Horde control (Nathadan), solo rush-ish in both Horde and Alliance (Rotun, Daspien) and solo control (Gorebelly, Kana Nassis). Almost every conceivable archetype is represented.

What does it all mean? Well for one thing, you probably shouldn't be making too many decisions based on the metagame. You probably need to have a plan for the solo decks because they're getting talked about the most, but there's no need to dedicate yourself to beating them yet. My advice for now would be to play a deck you're comfortable with that you think will have decent matchups across the board because there's really no way to predict what you will face over the course of 6 rounds.

Keep a close eye on how things develop over the next couple of weeks. One of two things will happen. Either the metagame will start to sort itself out and we'll see a little bit more structure among the top decks, or diversity will continue to rule the day. If the metagame starts sorting itself out, then you will be able to start making decisions based on what you expect to face, but until then the old cliche seems to be appropriate. Expect the unexpected.

Finally, let's take a look at the numbers by class which may be somewhat surprising.

Warrior-9
Hunter-9
Rogue-9
Paladin-6
Priest-5
Druid-4
Warlock-3
Shaman-3
Mage-0

The first thing that jumped out to me other than the continued balance among the classes, was the fact that every class was represented at least three time except Mage, which is apparently Latin for doormat as that class failed to put a single hero into a top 8. I was expecting to at least see an Ozzati rush deck or two based on the power or Dragon's Breath. The other somewhat shocking development is Shaman and Warlock, highly accustomed to sitting at number 1 and 2 respectively, are now tied for 7th among classes ahead of only the lowly doormats, uh, I mean Mages. It will be interesting to see if this is just because people are tired of playing those classes and want to play something different, or if they really have fallen that far down the heap.

At the top, you've got Warriors, Hunters, and Rogues with probably enough separation to call them the Tier 1 classes. The Rogues all seem to play pretty much the same game just from different factions. The Warriors are mostly Gorebelly, although there were a couple of Cruelty decks mixed in there, and the Victoria Jaton deck was actually Alliance rush with the combo finisher. The Hunters are represented by three vastly different styles. There's the Hoot n Shoot Alliance rush decks, the Sen'Zir/Ona Horde mid-range aggro decks, and then there are the Survival solo decks. Preparing for Rogues as a class will all be roughly the same. The same is true of Warriors, but preparing for Hunters is almost like preparing for three different classes.

The second tier of classes is led by the Paladins which have two very different decks represented. There's Alliance rush with Nimaasus, which may prove more popular than Phadalus given Hammer of Justice's brutality vs. solo decks. Then there's the Horde control deck, popularized by John Tatta and TAWC at U.S. Nationals. The hero is now Nathadan, presumably for Holy Shield and possibly Avenger's Shield.

Next up is Priest. These decks are all rush decks, centered around the new Priest powerhouse Shadowfiend. Most of these decks are Omedus for now because of his more devastating flip ability and ferocious allies. One person did choose the blue men and Anchorite Kalinna, presumably for Rescue the Survivors, Defias Brotherhood, and now Corki's Ransom.

Next is Druid which is mostly Feral Druids, but there was one Boomkin Druid based on winning through Moonfire spam. Then there are the former powerhouses Warlock and Shaman. The Warlock decks are mostly Alliance control and the Shaman decks are all Phadalus.

Stay tuned in the coming weeks as we see how the metagame shakes out. With the possibility of March of the Legion not being legal for Worlds, following the trends over the next few months will help give you a headstart leading up to Wordls.

Closing the Gap

For any of you who frequent message boards for UDE's games, you probably know that I'm not one to hold back the criticism when I think they're doing something wrong. My biggest complaint with UDE has always been the lack of information combined with the lack of punctuality of information when they do actually release it. To balance things out, I'm going to give UDE props when they do something right. For anyone who doesn't read the Upper Deck message boards, there were two very encouraging posts made by Upper Deck employees this week that I would like to highlight.

The first is by World of Warcraft Product Manager Dan Bojanowski and you can find it here.

The second was by Premier Events Manager "Chott" which you can find here.

I'm going to get to the highlights of each post, first I want to compliment UDE. This is at least a step in the right direction. While info for Worlds probably should have already gone up, at least they are now telling us when the info will be up and just passing along a lot of useful information in general. I think maintaining an open line of communication between the company and the customers is key. As long as they keep the info flowing, I'll be happy.

Now, let's jump into what these posts had to say. First, let's take a quick look at the Premeir Events info. The most important thing is that the Worlds page with all of its info will go live on September 28th. This update will include formats for the main event, scheduled side events, and the mystery of Honor ranking will finally be solved. The cutoffs for Honor ranking and rating will also be announced.

DMF's in the States have been planned but hand problems with venues falling through which had been quasi-confirmed by Ben Drago last week or so, but there are more in the works for possibly later this year, but hopefully early next.

Finally, regarding the legality of March of the Legion for Worlds, we have to wait a little longer.

Now on to Dan's post about future products. There's not a lot here to talk about that you can't gather just by reading the thread, but the one thing I want to talk about is the confirmation of blocks in design. Dan says that March of the Legion, Servants of the Betrayer, and the next set (cleverly codenamed WOW 6) will all work together with similar gameplay mechanics and design. Limited tournaments will use the block format as well with MotL not being mixed with any previous sets. He did say he didn't know about Constructed set rotations as that would be an Organized Play decision.

WOW 7-9 are also being designed as a block. The first set of each block (MotL and WOW 7) will be larger sets and have starter decks. Each other set in the block will be smaller and booster only (a la FoO). They are clearly taking a page out of Magic's playbook as this basically mirrors their release schedule as they release a 3 set block plus one "extra" set each year. A lot of people will dislike this similarity simply because it's the way Magic does it. But let's face facts. Magic is a well-oiled machine.

I've always thought that one of the biggest problems with VS. System was how hard they tried to show how different they were than Magic. From the dual system PCQ's to one set drafts to being another game that "fixed" mana screw, everything I always heard was why VS. was better than Magic. There are a lot of people who think that WoW should be the same way, like Magic is evil and to be avoided at all costs. But there's no shame in taking something that obviously works and putting it to work for you. If it ain't broke, don't fix it. And one of the signs that a game has made it, is when people quit comparing to all the other games to show why it's better. They just play it because it's fun. You'll hear very few people on the Magic side of a Game X vs. Magic debate simply because Magic players don't care about comparing their game to others. I would love to see WoW reach that level as well where everyone else talks about why their game is better than WoW and the WoW players just play their game.

Continuing in the similarities to Magic vein, it will also be interesting to see how they handle Constructed formats once more than one block is legal. I would expect to see block constructed with just the sets from the most recent block legal, plus a "Standard" with two blocks and an old-school with all sets legal.

The other question is how they will handle older sets, Heroes of Azeroth most specifically rotating out. Will they reprint staple cards like Shadow Bolt and Counterspell in blocks' lead off sets, or will they introduce Core Sets like Magic already had with 9th, 10th, etc. For this one, I'm not even going to wager a guess, but I highly doubt there will be a time when Vanquish isn't tournament legal in all formats.

FoO Review-Warlock

Well, after reading a lot of players' input, I have decided to continue posting both here and at TCGplayer. Here, things will be about the same as the always have been. I will be posting strategy and metagame type content mostly. If you want to check out my TCGplayer blog, I will be chronicling my attempt to try to grind into Worlds through Honor ranking/rating. That will be the majority of the content over there at least through November. With all that out of the way, let's finally get back to the now almost too late FoO review.

Death Coil

This card is another solid removal card in a long line of good removal cards for this class. This is the first that only costs one which means it might find a home in Warlock control decks. It can't hit heroes which is a little annoying, but it still removes the majority of 1 and 2 drops that see play. It also has the added versatility of being able to remove a big ally to keep it off the board for a turn. You can remove a Magni to get one last attack through or a Tewa just to keep it from attacking you for a turn. That added versatility probably makes up for the fact that it can't target heroes.

In limited, this is certainly a card to be looking for if you're in the Warlock class. What your deck looks like so far will heavily determine how highly you should value a Death Coil. It's not something you're automatically going to pick from the pack, but it's definitely a mid-level pick.

Immolate

I'm not sure about this card. It has the obvious home in a Warlock DoT deck if one of those ever makes it. It also combos well with Incinerate ensuring your fire damage to kick in. Overall though, Warlocks as a class probably have the best set of abilities which means Immolate is competing with cards like Steal Essence, Shadow Bolt, and Shadowburn for removal slots. I don't think it's better than those cards, so I don't think this will make the cut in most Warlock decks.

In limited, it's not a super high pick, but DoT's do tend to be slightly more effective in limited where there is less ability removal and games tend to drag on longer. I wouldn't take it too high, but I wouldn't hate playing it if I could get it late.

Incinerate

This card suffers from combo syndrome. On its own, Incinerate is strictly inferior to Steal Essence since they do the same thing except Steal Essence has a heal effect tacked on. If you've dealt fire damage to the character in question, you get to deal 4 damage instead of 2. The problem here of course, is that anything big enough to warrant dealing fire damage to it then finishing it with an Incinerate would probably be better served by a Shred/Jar Soul. You can always use it to target an opponent and get the boost, but Warlocks have historically preferred to use their abilities to control the game and then mop things up with a big ally. The other problem is that Warlocks specialize in shadow damage so even doing fire damage in the first place may be a bit of a chore.

In limited, the card is 2 damage for 2 resources. It's not terribly exciting and Warlocks have a lot better options, but it will usually end up in your playables pile. Not a high pick, but not bad as one of the last 5 cards in your deck.

Jar Soul

Now this is what I'm talking about. It's one turn slower than Shred Soul, but it let's you play Infernal on turn 5. I've been playing it in a Mazar control deck and haven't been disappointed by the one extra cost over Shred Soul because it has powered out a lot of turn 5 6/6's.

In limited, I would take it very high. The ability to remove any ally from the game is huge. I would probably only take Norrund over it unless I had some gaping holes in my curve that I had to fill and could get quality in that spot from the same pack. The secondary ability may be worthless to you, but 4 resources to RFG anyone is a great deal in limited.

Shadowfury

I'm not going to lie, if I had written this review 2 weeks ago when I first saw the set, I would have said Shadowfury was the best ability in the set. That may still be the case, but one thing I've noticed with Shadowfury in the above-mentioned Mazar deck is that while I'm never unhappy playing it, I'm not sure the deck actually needs it. It's only really good against Alliance rush decks and for punching the killing blow through a wall of protectors (usually 1/1 Dwarves). It's rarely bad against Horde decks, they just have a lot more guys that survive it and it's not as good vs. Ferocity. While I can't imagine cutting it from the deck, I still think three is probably the right number. It may become a sideboard card depending on the popularity of solo decks. While it is very good, it's not quite the powerhouse I had envisioned. It doesn't really MAKE the Warlock control deck like it would if it were a Mage card. While this card would make a Mage control very formidable, it feels like overkill for the Warlock which already tends to handle rush decks fairly well. I hope no one misunderstands this and thinks I'm saying Shadowfury isn't good. It's very good. It's just not quite the powerhouse I was thinking it would be.

In limited, this one is a windmill slam if you're a Warlock. I was in Alliance Warlock, I would probably take this over any other card in the pack including Norrund.

Soulshatter

I don't think this card is very good. Warlocks aren't really in the business of getting attacked directly which is what this card requires.

In limited, I like it even less because you'll almost always have allies in play which means this is even less likely to make any kind of impact on the game.

Unstable Affliction

This is the card that could make the Warlock DoT deck work. It's pretty cheap. It deals 2 damage every turn which adds up quickly, and if they (or you) destroy the Affliction it chips in an extra four. I think that deck would probably be a control deck that just tries to eat away a them with Afflictions and maybe a Corruption or Immolate. Whether the deck makes it or not, this card is very good.

As I've already said DoT tend to be more effetive in limited due to the longer games and lower amounts of ability removal. This one in particular could be brutal where 2 damage a turn is a decent clock in addition to whatever else you're doing. The low cost also enables you to toss it out there in the mid-game without wasting your entire turn to do so. While it's not the auto first pick that Shadowfury is, I would still pick it pretty high.

Angrida

I can't see a Warlock deck ever choosing to play this over Sarmoth in Constructed. Even aggro Warlock decks tend to like the lightning rod that Sarmoth provides. Her ability will rarely make a difference as she will rarely survive a turn. If she does survive though, she can be especially brutal after just a couple of turns.

In limited, she's a house. Kor Cindervein is a high pick just because he's a 3/3 for 3. So is Angrida with a potentially board dominating ability. Limited decks will be less focused and won't always be able to remove her immediately. If she does make it, you'll put yourself in a tough to lose situation. Another really high pick for Warlocks in the Fires pack.

Hukkath

A 3/5 protector for 4 isn't bad, especially if they manage to off Sarmoth on turn 3. He's big enough to almost guarantee a 2 for 1 if played early. The 5/3 4 drops are rarely seen in Constructed. He's another nice speed bump on the road to Infernal.

In limited, he's yet another super Warlock card. Ironically, he's less of a guaranteed 2 for 1 because a lot more people will be playing their Vaerik Proudhooves and Katsin Bloodoaths in limited. He's still a big protector that is likely to both generate card advantage and control tempo.

What do you want?

I've received a few e-mails and comments here asking me to continue posting at this blog in addition to the blog I've started at TCGplayer. I realized that this blog is where it all started for me. I really developed my initial readership with the first Regionals preparation. This blog is what landed me the gig at TCGplayer. So my question is, how many of you would like to see me continue posting here as well as my other blog? Leave a comment here or email me at blyonsmagic@yahoo.com. A weekly feature article plus 2 blogs is a lot of content each week. I should be able to manage it, but I'm not going to bother if no one is going to read it. Let me know what you think.

FoO Review-Shaman

My Shaman review is up over at MyTCGplayer. You can find it here.