2 for 1 Today. Cat Form + Metagame Madness
I was planning on combining two posts today since I don't like to make multiple posts in a day so that no one loses the first post in the update. UDE went ahead and made it a little easier on me by previewing an incredibly boring card about which I have very little to say for now.
Today's preview is Cat Form. I'm not going to post all the text because I'm sure everyone has already seen it. Let me just say that I think this was a bad card to preview for a couple of reasons. 1) Everyone already knew it was coming and most people had a pretty good idea of what it would do. 2) Without knowing about any of the other cards that reference it, seeing this card is almost worthless. In a vacuum, Cat Form is an unstackable Blessing of Might that destroys itself when you play either of the Druid's 2 best abilities, Innervate and Natural Selection. I'm not saying that Cat Form is bad, just that there's no way to know how good it is without seeing more of the cards that reference it. Predatory Strikes is stackable though and that card could be going up in value if the other cat form cards are high quality.
On to the weekly metagame analysis. I've added top 8 numbers this week where possible to get a little better look at the top decks. I didn't get all the results this week, but I got most of them. I've got a few different breakdowns of the decks. First is top 4 placements this week.
Grennan-14
Elendril-4
Dizdemona-4
Sen'Zir-3
Gorebelly-3
Varanis-1
Litori-1
There may have been one Omedus deck in there but one of the reports was a little unclear. It doesn't matter though, because the big winner this week is a shocker. Grennan has stormed out away from the rest of the field as the undisputed top deck. Dizdemona had a nice bounceback week tying Elendril for 2nd with Sen'Zir and Gorebelly coming in right behind them. Sen'Zir's pace has slowed dramatically. I think the surprise value is wearing off a little bit and people are more prepared for the deck. The dominane of Grennan could start to pose problems for Elendril, but nothing seems to really stop that deck so don't expect too much of a decline. I think Gorebelly is becoming a better and better choice each week the Shaman continues to dominate. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see the Warrior combo decks making some more noise in the next few weeks. Dizdemona has returned somewhat, solidifying itself in that second tier. Based on these results the metagame looks to be shaping up like this for now.
Tier 1
Grennan
Tier 2
Elendril
Sen'Zir
Gorebelly
Dizdemona
I think Grennan is starting to assert himself as the unparalleled best hero. One thing worth noting here is the amount of variance in Grennan builds. It's not necessarily always the same deck or even the same type of deck qualifying all these Grennan players. There was a Grennan deck this weekend in Roanoke that was almost all equipment. The Horde version of Solo-din if you will. This also happens to be one of the advantages of playing Grennan. Unlike almost any other TCG, since your hero is revealed before the match starts, your opponent has valuable information about your deck before you start playing (please no rants about scouting, that's a different subject entirely). If your opponent has Elendril you have a pretty good idea that he's playing rush. This information can affect your early game and even game one mulligan decisions. But because of the variance in Grennan decks, your hero is less relevent for the early part of the match than any other hero. I haven't seen this mentioned anywhere else and IMO is one of the Shaman's biggest weapons.
Moving on to total numbers the breakdown now looks like this:
First number is Top 8's with Top 4's in parentheses.
Grennan-29 (22)
Elendril-15 (12)
Sen'Zir-15 (12)
Dizdemona-14 (7)
Gorebelly-9 (7)
Omedus-4 (2)
Varanis-2 (2)
Litori-2 (2)
Radak-1 (1)
Graccus-1 (1)
Thangal-1 (1)
Ta'Zo-1 (1)
Warrax-1 (0)
These totals pretty much mirror this week's top 4 results. Grennan is a distant first followed by a closely packed group of Elendril, Sen'Zir, Dizdemona, and Gorebelly. I'm going to give the Tier 3 nod to Omedus, Varanis, and Litori since they're the only other heroes with a number bigger than 1 anywhere. Warrax is the only newcomer to the big board with a lone top 8 this week.
A couple of quick notes. Grennan is number one and pulling away. With more than 3 times as many top 4's as the next closest hero this week, the uber-cow seems to be the surest ticket to Indy until Dark Portal comes out. Even a shift toward lots of Shaman hate may take a week or 2 and Grennan's adaptability makes even that difficult.
The 2 Hunters had been neck and neck with Grennan for the first few weeks, but seem to be losing a little bit of steam. Dizdemona has bounced back this week and Gorebelly is becoming a more consistent deck. After that, there' not much else to talk about right now. Dark Portal is coming out soon, and I think Darkmoon Faire-Austin is going to a time of innovation. I think there will be some people who fall back on the tried and true Elendril and Grennan decks until the metagame becomes more defined, but I think a lot of people will be looking to be the ones doing the defining.
posted by B Lyons @ 11:12 AM
8 Comments
8 Comments:
You have to look at the number of each hero being played though. Half the players at these regionals seem to bring a Grennan, and some of them honestly stink the place out. Gorebelly and Dizdemona aren't being played a lot, and that might be because the cards are so expensive to get. But when they come, they don't seem to drop many games.
Well, the number of players playing each deck is much harder to come by than just who finished where. However, I can tell you there was a 57 person event in Richmond? perhaps. Somewhere on the east coast anyway. Dizdemona was the most played hero at 10. That's better than one in 6 players. None of them even made top 8. Also, Dizdemona was the second most qualified hero and easily the most hyped deck after 1/13 so I don't think the no one plays them argument holds up here. The price of cards has also come way down. That has always been Litori backers biggest argument as to why she hasn't exploded like everyone thought she would. I definitely don't think the price debate holds any water here considering Dizzy's success in January. I think the reason Gorebelly doesn't get played as much is because it's tough to beat Elendril with it and that's a scary proposition.
I don't think Gorebelly should be the same status as Hunters. It loses too consistantly against both Sen'zir and Elendril, which are still more than half the top qualifiers by your numbers. Shaman and hunters can still eek out wins against thier hard matches.
Like you said, Elendril seems to stick around, I think it's because he can just blow the shaman out some games.
I think where Grennan is shining is where there is a concentration of Elendril decks.
As far as Sen'Zir, It's my choice to consistanlty beat shaman. 2 main deck Shieled Smashers (+2 SD) and 4 Karkas Death howl run over it.
I think before you started tracking these results, Mage was the way to trump Shaman but it proved too weak to hunters to gain any ground. I think the switch, since you started keeping track, has been to Gorebelly to beat Shaman, but again it is too weak against hunters and will probably die out.
The whole reason Shaman is the best deck right now is because it beats hunter (or only half, imo). It's tough to beat other heroes with it, though. To dismiss Hunters as tier two is a bit pre-mature and wishful thinking that the game with only one set out is more diversifiend than it really is.
The thing about what I've done with the Tiering system is that it is strictly an analysis of the numbers. I try to keep my own opinions out of the mix. The numbers say that Grennan stands alone. It's hard to say that either Hunter is on the same level as Grennan right now when they both barely have half the results. Their success right now is closer to Gorebelly's than Grennan's, and that is why I moved them down. Again, it has nothing to do with whether I think the decks are good or not, and is based strictly on numbers.
Elendril sticks around because the deck severly punishes any bad draw its opponent may have. And when Elendril gets a great opening hand, there's no hope for the opposing player. Against a shaman or not, Elendril's deck is very strong and very consistent and is why he hasn't disappeared completely.
Why shaman is the best deck right now is because its versatile enough to beat both hunter rush and warlock/mage control.
I agree as always, Bryan.
Hate to steal your thunder, but I did mention Hero importance especially in conjunction to the variance of decks in my latest article.
I didn't get to the Shaman review, but I was going to note it and talk a bit more about it when I got there (seeing as how Shaman is my favorite class, hero, and deck. :)).
Anyway, details aside...
Dizzy isn't doing as hot as predicted and I can tell you exactly why:
Shut down their draw, and they lose. Same with Mage. If you gain momentum on turn 1, and rush Dizzy out, you win the game. If they start with only one removal spell, you win the game. The way to beat control is to rush them. You want to burn them as quick as possible and now there's a deck that does it.
Ladies and gentleman, the netdeck of Mr. Phil Cape. Shaman rush is a-m-a-z-i-n-g. You mentioned back when that the best way to defeat Dizzy is to hit her directly. Same with the Mage, obviously. That deck does that. Even Grennan control does that fairly well.
Grennan decks have adapted to not only be the top tier against Rush, but against control now, too. They're able to switch their game to be a rush variant, or a control variant.
That's why Dizzy is getting pounded. I always liked Litori decks, but they just can't deal with Grennan. Frost Nova can't compete with the high health allies. The draw power is ridiculous. Not as great as Warlock, but up there.
If the Warlock makes a mistake and plays Life Tap on 2 instead of something such as Steal Essence, they lose the game. Especially if going second.
On the flip side:
There are ways to deal with Grennan Aggro. That is not something I'm going to go into for personal reasons, but soon enough I will make sure to discuss it.
Other than that...
I'm glad the HoA metagame has proven me correctly. It's much more expansive than people believe, and honestly it'll keep changing and changing. I'm not all that excited about Dark Portal and I've stated that several times in the past.
Oh well. I have a ton of writing to do while HoA is the only set out. Thanks for the discussion.
As always, Bryan,
~Ted :)
I absolutely agree that the shaman rush is incredible. I tweaked the deck a bit and it went 11-2 over two regionals last weekend, claiming 3rd and 1st out of 24 and 36.
That's why I really want to push for the community to distinguish between the two decks. Sen'zir, for example, has a pretty good matchup against shaman control, but pretty much loses against shaman rush.
Elendril, interestingly enough, is STILL something of a problem for shaman rush because of all the reach. Of the two matches lost on the weekend, one was to an Elendril deck that went turn 6 Leeroy, turn 7 A-Me Leeroy, turn 8 Aimed Shot for 7. Sometimes it just kills you.
I qualified in my AZ 3/18 regionals with a version of Shaman Rush as well.
Let them lump it and control together, as that is one of the reasons it is currently performing so well. People think, oh a Shaman and keep the wrong game one starting hand.
That being said this deck is far from perfect, and dang near gave me a heart attack based on how close several of my games were.
There is, in my opinion, one reason Shaman decks of any form are competitve. Chain Lightening is simply the biggest formating defining card. It is better than multi shot and better than frost nova because of the 3 damage to the main target.
I am not saying all of the other cards are crap, Just that other heroes have access to other cards that provide the same function. Searing totem, while good, often only kills one ally which makes it just as good as any other removal.
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