The Nationals Metagame-Pagatha Control

I didn't get very many Regionals results for this week, and there was nothing particularly interesting about the ones I did get. Phadalus took another 6 slots out of 16 reported. Due to the relatively low relevence of a metagame breakdown this week, I will save these results and due Metagame Madness next week. Today, I will continue the deck breakdowns with Chris McMurry's pet, Pagatha Control.

Pagatha Control
Chris McMurry-Top 8 Darkmoon Faire: Chicago

4 Sarmoth
2 Lok'holar the Ice Lord
3 Guardian Steppestrider
3 Zygore Bladebreaker
4 Guardian Steelhorn
2 Infernal
2 Shadow Bolt
2 Shred Soul
2 Shattering Blow
3 Fel Armor
3 Shadowburn
4 Steal Essence
2 Cannibalize
2 Spirit Healer
3 Rain of Fire
3 Nemesis Skullcap

4 The Haunted Mills
2 Counterattack
4 A Donation of Silk
4 In Dreams
2 Poison Water

The first thing I want to point out is that there are a lot of ways to build a Pagatha deck. The Warlock has a lot of very strong abilities which gives you a lot of options when making the card choices for your deck. As with almost any deck, specific choices you make can have major implications on the way your matchups with other decks play out. Likewise, the exact builds of your opponents' decks will cause changes in the matchups. When I talk about the matchups in a moment, I will use my results testing against this decklist against standard lists of the the other decks. That gives us the best idea of how the matchups are likely to play out and the relative strenghts and weaknesses of the deck.

This deck has one huge advantage going for it, it's Phadalus's worst matchup. This deck is packing a lot of cards that rush decks don't want to see. Infernal, Rain of Fire, and Cannibalize are all nightmare cards for anyone looking to ride a wave of cheap allies to victory. This deck looks to slow down the early game with cards like the Guardians and Sarmoth to protect and solid removal in cards like Steal Essence and Shadow Bolt. If it can survive to the mid-game, Nemesis Skullcap and Cannibalize return most of the health that has been lost in the early game.

The deck has several win conditions once it hits the late game. The most obvious is Lok'helar + Spirit Healer. Any deck that doesn't have graveyard or ability removal will simply get locked down by the Ice Lord. He will keep all their allies dead and the ones who don't die immediately won't be able to attack anyway. If the opponent does manage to remove Lok'helar, Spirit Healer just brings him back out.

Should the unending recursion plan fall through, there is the fall back plan of Fel Armor. Fel Armor serves two functions. First, it turns Nemesis Skullcap from a mild annoyance to an outright force. Healing three damage a turn + another three for every ability you play makes getting any damage to stick very difficult. Second, it turns up the heat with all of the damage dealing abilities. While it is possible to burn out your opponent with a bunch of Fel Armor'd Shadowburns and Steal Essences, the thing I have seen most often in our testing is just playing a late Rain of Fire when you have more than enough resources to continually pay for it and letting it just deal three a turn until they're dead or within range of all the firepower in your hand. This is especially difficult to get out of since the Rain also does three to all opposing allies and anything that can survive the initial three is unlikely to make it through the burn that will inevitably follow from the hand.

Okay, so this deck is pretty good against Phadalus. What are the weaknesses then? Well, the deck doesn't particularly like heroes that can deal a lot of damage without the need for pesky allies. Telrander, Gorebelly, Azarak, and the newer versions of Bulkas pose significant problems to this deck. Warlock's best weapon against solo strategies has historically been Ancient Cornerstone Grimoire, but it doesn't do much to stop any of these decks except Telrander which runs Chipper anyway to blow it up.

The deck still doesn't have a great early game and with only 2 Infernals and 2 Cannibalizes can sometimes find itself losing to decks it is very strong against based on less than optimal draws. It is also particularly vulnerable to an end of turn Yeti + Heroic Presence which not all Shamans run, but many do. The deck is also vulnerable to ability removal as its main win conditions center on Spirit Healer and Fel Armor.

Let's move on and analyze some of the matchups.

Phadalus rush-This deck is really designed to beat this deck. With the high statted Guardian and Sarmoth to slow the initial rush and Infernal and Cannibalize to power through the midgame, this deck doesn't mind facing off with the top dog. You will occasionally lose to weak draws where you don't draw the finisher you need, but for the most part this is why you play Pagatha. The matchup can get a little tougher after sideboard when they bring in Purge, but it's still pretty in your favor.

Telrander-This matchup is just not good for you. There's just not a whole lot this deck can do about a hero that attacks for 7+ a turn. With no ability removal, your only real hope is to throw out enough road blocks and heal enough to stay alive long enough to get a Spirit Healer in play and an Ice Lord in the graveyard. If you can keep Lok'helar in play and he doesn't get Raked or Clawed, he will end the game quickly while also stopping Telrander from attacking. This sounds like a good plan, but it rarely works out this way. Your other option would be to bring in Grimoires and hope they don't draw Chippers long enough for you to get to the endgame. This is a really bad matchup for Pagatha.

Dizdemona rush-This is probably the least talked about deck that is doing well. This matchup is kind of accidentally really good for Pagatha. A lot of the same reasons why Phadalus is such a good matchup are true here. Dizdemona sacrifices a little bit of Phadalus mid game for more explosive finishers and Luppo. Protectors, Infernal, and Cannibalize are still major problems here. This is another good matchup.

Sen'Zir-Any deck that is going to rely on allies is going to lose a lot to Pagatha. This deck uses fewer allies who attack for more. The Guardians are still very good here and a couple removal spells plus a Cannibalize will usually result in a win for Pagatha. This one is actually usually easier because their allies cost more than Phadalus's, so your removal generally costs the same or less than the allies it is removing.

Bulkas-The Bulkas list that TAWC played in Chicago had been updated with this deck specifically in mind. The Zygore/Spirit Healer combo powered Chris past Tim Batow in the final round of Swiss in Austin and the TAWC guys came prepared to not let that happen again. Now packing Ophelia Barrows, this matchup went from good to bad for Pagatha. When you're playing against a deck that packs as much equipment as Bulkas, one or two Zygores is simply not good enough. In Austin, it was the power of recurring Zygore that led to Chris's win. If you can only destroy one or two of their equipment (unless you can also apply some heavy pressure like Phadalus) you're really better off just doing something else. Again, this is a deck that does a lot of damage with just the hero which poses problems for Pagatha. A Grimoire may help, but it just delays the inevitable. They will usually just heal to full with the Wraith Scythe before bringing out Thunderfury and swinging twice a turn with it. This is a pretty weak matchup against the updated Bulkas decks.

Gorebelly-This is quite possibly Pagatha's worst matchup. You can usually handle the initial attacks, but there is no answer to the Mortal Strike/Heroic Strike/Rak combo. Occasionally, a single Gorebelly can be enough to stop it, but the one comfort in this matchup is that if you can bring the Spirit Healer/Zygore online, they will not have an answer so they will be forced to play the weapon and one-shot in one turn. Sometimes they can do this, but a lot of the time if you make it that far a Lok'helar will end the game prety quickly. If they bring in any graveyard or ability removal though, you will be in trouble here as well.

Azarak-This is another matchup that is just really bad. Assuming you had a way to stop them from just bludgeoning you to death with Blood Fury, you have absolutely no answer to Rapid Fire. With no instant speed equipment removal, no way to stop Azarak from attacking, not enough protectors to stop all the damage and almost no way to win before they Rapid Fire, this matchup is just atrocious. We haven't played it very much because it's just so bad, but the times we have played it, Pagatha just couldn't win. This is a bad matchup, but the good news is the deck isn't that popular.

Grennan-A lot of the matchups for Pagatha seem very lopsided to me. Most of the ally based decks have a very uphill battle against the Undead Warlock, while the solo decks almost have a bye. Grennan is one of the few ally based decks that has a fighting chance. This matchup is very deck dependent. If Grennan plays Ophelia, it is pretty even. It might even slightly favor Grennan. If they don't play Ophelia, it's definitely in favor of Pagatha, but not as much as some of the other ally based matchups. This is kind of a game of cat and mouse as Grennan plays some threats and tests the removal abilities of Pagatha trying to get something to stick. Cannibalize is one of the key cards here. If a decent-sized Cannibalize resolves, it is very difficult for Grennan to muster enough damage to finish it. This is one of the areas Ophelia is so key. This and removing Ice Lords so they don't come back. Game 2 can be pretty dicey for Pagatha if Grennan plays Ophelia because he will also bring in Purge. With Purge to take out Fel Armors and Ophelia keeping the graveyards clean, Pagatha will have a hard time mustering a win condition. If Grennan doesn't run Ophelia and the Purges are left to handle both Spirit Healer and Fel Armor, then Pagatha still has inevitability on her side. Overall, this matchup is pretty close with Ophelia's presence or absence determining who has the slight edge.

Nimaasus-This deck is so similar to Phadalus that instead of going in depth, I'll just mention the major differences and how Pagatha should feel about them. Hammer of Justice isn't much of a problem. Consecration is on par with Chain Lightning. Azuresong Mageblade can pose some problems as Draenei decks already draw a lot of cards and this can put them into the realm of too many cards for you to fight off. It usually won't stay long before Zygore breaks it, but it's the biggest worry you have that is different than the Shaman deck. It's still a favorable matchup for Pagatha with your biggest fear being Are We There Yeti? + Heroic Presence. They also lose Purge from the board which is very nice for Pagatha.

That's it for the Pagatha breakdown, next up on my list is Telrander.